National party leaders descend on California, where voters could determine control of Congress

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigning with George Whitesides.

Oct. 13, 2024 Updated 2:36 PM PT

House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigning in California on the same day shows the state’s importance.
Republicans are defending 15 seats in the House of Representatives that are considered toss-ups, including five in California.

On a crisp, clear Sunday morning in Palmdale, dozens of volunteers holding signs, buttons and doughnuts packed into a local union hall to greet House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, arrived in Southern California on Saturday for a weekend of campaigning and fundraising for Democrats fighting to flip the Republican-controlled House. Among them was George Whitesides, a former aerospace executive challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Garcia in the Antelope Valley.

“He could have been anywhere in the country today,” Whitesides told the crowd of cheering volunteers as he introduced Jeffries. “There’s not too many Sundays left until the election. And he decided to come to the Antelope Valley.”

Two hours later in Riverside County, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) appeared at a rally with incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert, seeking to bolster Republican enthusiasm in one of the country’s most competitive congressional districts.

Candidate for the 41st Congressional District Will Rollins has his photo taken with supporters.

With a little over three weeks until the Nov. 5 election, both top party leaders campaigning in Southern California on the same weekend underscores the state’s importance to the battle for control of the House of Representatives.

Their visits follow former President Trump’s Saturday rally at a Coachella Valley polo field, energizing California Republicans who are often neglected by GOP presidential candidates in the final stretch of elections because the state remains a Democratic stronghold.

California and its dozens of House seats are important during every election, but the state is “particularly significant during this election cycle,” Jeffries told reporters after the Palmdale event.

Democrats need to pick up four seats nationwide to regain control of the House.

Republicans hold a razor-thin majority in the House and are defending 15 seats considered toss-ups. Five of those races are in California, where Republican House members are fighting costly and acrimonious reelection battles.

“California matters more than any other state in terms of determining who’s going to control the House next year,” said Erin Covey, the House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

California’s most competitive races are in Orange County’s 45th District, where Derek Tran is running against Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Seal Beach); Riverside County’s 41st District, where Will Rollins is running against Calvert (R-Corona); the Antelope Valley’s 27th District, where Whitesides is running against Garcia (R-Santa Clarita); and the always contested Central Valley, where Adam Gray and Rudy Salas are running against Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and David Valadao (R-Hanford).

Democrats have two competitive seats to defend, those held by Rep. Mike Levin in San Diego County’s 49th Congressional District and by Rep. Josh Harder in the Central Valley’s 9th Congressional District.

Democrats are also seeking to hold the 47th District in coastal Orange County. The seat has no incumbent candidate because Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) launched a bid for the U.S. Senate, losing in the primary, rather than seeking reelection to the House.

State Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat, is running against former Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh in a race that Cook describes as “lean Democratic.” Baugh narrowly lost to Porter in a bruising and expensive campaign two years ago.

So many seats are in play in California this year in part because Republicans surpassed expectations in California two years ago, Covey said. She said Democrats running for Congress felt voters’ displeasure over how state leaders, who are all Democrats, had handled crime and other issues.

But Democrats are expected to have a stronger shot at these districts in a presidential year, when turnout is higher.

Calvert, who has represented parts of Riverside County in Congress since 1993, is the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation.

Supporters of Rep. Ken Calvert exit the Calvert for Congress headquarters in Corona.

He is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor. Rollins’ chances of winning the 41st Congressional District have been bolstered by redistricting in 2022 that subtracted some traditionally conservative areas and added liberal Palm Springs.

The Republican Party has worked to boost Calvert, who spoke during Trump’s rally in Coachella Saturday. Calvert told attendees that, thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, the state has “turned into a nightmare” because of expensive housing, high taxes and homelessness.

“As bad as things have become here in California, I’m not giving up, and neither are you,” Calvert said.

The Sunday rally at Calvert’s campaign headquarters, which was closed to media, featured Johnson and San Diego-area Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall), attendees said.

Steve Bussman, who wore a plaid shirt and a “Calvert for Congress” pin, said he is supporting the longtime congressman because he’s been a “fixture of this community, so it’s time the community helps back.”

“He represents the America we want for our children and our grandchildren,” Bussman said. Bussman said he’s confident that Republicans will retain the House majority, saying: “I think there’s more people who think like me than the other guys.”

Rollins said in an interview that Johnson’s appearance at Calvert’s rally was an eleventh-hour effort to boost the congressman’s campaign.

“It means they’re trying to save him,” Rollins said. “And the fact that it’s tied with three weeks to go and voters are still learning a lot more about me and they know a lot about him. I think it puts us in a great position.”

Johnson was also scheduled to stump for Republicans running for Congress in Orange County and San Diego and attend a fundraiser in San Clemente before leaving the state Monday.

Jeffries made an appearance Saturday at a Rock the Vote event for Tran in Orange County that featured Vietnamese performers.

The 45th Congressional District, home to Little Saigon, has the largest population of people of Vietnamese descent outside of Vietnam, but has never had a Vietnamese American representative in Washington. Tran, who was born in the U.S. to Vietnamese refugees, is hoping to buck that trend.

The Antelope Valley has been represented in Congress by Garcia, a Republican and former Navy pilot, since 2020, when he won a special election to replace Democrat Katie Hill after her resignation from Congress. He is facing Whitesides, a former NASA administrator and chief executive of Virgin Galactic.

“The eyes of the country are on the 27th District,” Whitesides said at the volunteer event. “As we vote, so goes the House of Representatives. It’s on us if we want to protect reproductive freedom, if we want to protect Social Security, if we want to protect the LGBT community, if we want to save our communities from the scourge of gun violence.”

Attorney Lori Schoenberg drove from Los Feliz Sunday morning to canvass for Whitesides, who she said is a “compelling” candidate.

Democrats winning a congressional seat in the Antelope Valley is “always going to be a heavy lift,” Schoenberg said. She said she had volunteered in the district before, including in 2018, when Hill won her seat as part of the blue wave that swept the House during the Trump administration.

She said she was heartened to see that national Democrats are focusing their time and money on the district, saying: “That investment is going to make a difference.”

Times staff writer Faith Pinho contributed to this report.